Maybe it will be China, or a private sector company like Richard Branson’s http://www.virgingalactic.com
The lethal radiation problem will doom their efforts just like NASA’s. Hopefully, US Taxpayers will not be billed for this folly. American taxpayers were previously billed $25+ Billion (1960’s era ) US Dollars for the Apollo Program. The vast majority of China’s Space Program is stolen/copycatted material from NASA, anyway, so they will not be going anywhere, either. On that note, don’t be suckered into any ‘we’re falling behind in a new space race’ rhetoric from NASA.